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This page explains how the Durability Score is built — the components, the evidence behind each one, and the named sources. For who this work fits and what a career path through it looks like, see the Deep Read. For your personalized match, take the free quiz.
Where the 46 comes from.

Three components - Automation Resistance, Structural Moat, and Demand - add up to 46.

FJP Durability Score
46/100
Automation Resistance
16/40

Automation resistance is mixed because AI reaches routine code, while architecture and production judgment remain human. AI reaches routine code, tests, examples, and documentation, so resistance depends on ambiguous design, debugging, and production responsibility. The beginner layer is where the pressure is sharpest.

Sub-components
Substitution Resistance
6/30

Substitution resistance is limited for routine coding, tests, and documentation, but stronger for ambiguous system design.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Anthropic labor-market impacts → Observed exposure for the Software Developers occupation category is 28.8%.
Tufts American AI Jobs Risk Index → Median modeled job-loss pressure for the occupation category is 26.38%.
Augmentation Leverage
10/10

Augmentation leverage is high because AI can help draft, explain, refactor, test, and debug code.

Sources feeding this sub-component
IMF Staff Discussion Notes on AI and labor markets → Links AI-related skills with wage premiums in exposed labor markets.
Structural Moat
13/35

The moat is large-codebase experience, production trust, security, and domain judgment rather than formal protection. The barrier is earned through large-codebase experience, system ownership, security judgment, domain knowledge, code review, and trust from teammates. That trust grows through maintenance, incidents, and review.

Sub-components
Physical & Environmental
0/10

Physical and environmental protection is absent because software work is digital and globally portable.

Regulatory Moat
1/12

Regulatory protection is low, though safety-critical and regulated software can add review requirements.

Robotics Resistance
8/8

Robotics are not the substitute path; software automation is the pressure point.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Credential Depth
4/5

Credential depth is moderate through degrees, portfolios, internships, code review, and shipped production experience.

Sources feeding this sub-component
O*NET Online occupation summary → Lists this occupation in Job Zone 4, a higher-preparation category.
Demand
17/25

Software has a large, directly measured labor market across many industries. The caution is resilience: AI compresses routine implementation, and web, embedded, mobile, games, infrastructure, and AI-applied roles hire differently. A reader should compare lanes before choosing training.

Sub-components
Volume
8/10

Volume is strong because software developers are directly counted and needed across many industries.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections → Software Developers: 1,693.8K jobs, 15.8% growth, and 115.2K annual openings.
Source Quality
6/8

Source quality is strong because the public occupation matches the title closely.

Resilience
3/7

Resilience is weaker than demand because routine implementation can be accelerated and hiring differs by lane.

What would move the score
Scenario 1
Junior implementation compresses

The case weakens if AI lets small teams produce routine features, tests, and documentation with fewer entry-level developers. The first roles hit would be ticket translation with little design or production ownership. That would push training programs to prove system reasoning and maintenance skill earlier.

Direction
down
Components affected
Automation Resistance, Demand
Scenario 2
Software complexity keeps rising

The case strengthens if organizations need more developers to manage security, reliability, data flows, integrations, and AI-enabled products. That would reward people who can reason about systems rather than only produce code quickly. The strongest beginners would show debugging, testing, security awareness, and the ability to improve existing systems.

Direction
up
Components affected
Demand
Scenario 3
Lanes diverge sharply

A mixed outcome needs review if web-product hiring softens while infrastructure, embedded, security-adjacent, or AI-applied software remains stronger. Readers would need lane-specific evidence before choosing training or internships. Readers should choose internships and projects that reveal lane-specific work rather than treating all software jobs as interchangeable.

Direction
neutral
Components affected
Automation Resistance, Demand
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Last reviewed June 2026 · Next September 2026