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This page explains how the Durability Score is built — the components, the evidence behind each one, and the named sources. For who this work fits and what a career path through it looks like, see the Deep Read. For your personalized match, take the free quiz.
Where the 89 comes from.

Three components - Automation Resistance, Structural Moat, and Demand - add up to 89.

FJP Durability Score
89/100
Automation Resistance
35/40

Replacement pressure is low because occupational therapy depends on live observation of daily function, safety, tools, environments, and caregivers. AI mainly helps with documentation, care-plan drafting, equipment lists, remote monitoring, and summaries. The evidence names splinting, adaptive equipment, caregiver training, and home safety as durable work.

Sub-components
Substitution Resistance
29/30

observed AI exposure of 0.8% and modeled median job-loss risk of 1.32%. Both are in the lowest-risk range, and in-person functional assessment and adaptation push the score near the top.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Tufts American AI Jobs Risk Index → Occupational Therapists show a 50.5 exposure score and 1.32% job loss in the median scenario.
Augmentation Leverage
6/10

useful support with limited worker-side capture. Note drafts, home programs, adaptive-equipment lists, remote monitoring, and school or work accommodation drafts can help, but the gain mostly sits inside employer systems.

Structural Moat
32/35

The protection comes from accredited OT education, NBCOT certification, state licensure, and patient-specific function work in real settings. Assistive technology and robotics add options, but the therapist still adapts the tool to the person. Compact mobility improves portability without replacing the state license gate.

Sub-components
Physical & Environmental
8/10

hands-on functional work. Exact physical-task fields were unavailable, so the score uses transfers, Activities of Daily Living (ADL) retraining, adaptive-device fitting, splinting, home and school assessment, caregiver training, and infection exposure in clinical settings.

Sources feeding this sub-component
BLS Occupational Requirements Survey data → Many exact OT physical fields were unavailable; several low hazard fields were available.
Regulatory Moat
11/12

accredited graduate education, national certification or exam pathways, and state licensure, with one point held back for state-by-state scope and entry-route variation.

Sources feeding this sub-component
NBCOT certification → Names the national occupational therapy certification and exam source.
ACOTE accreditation → Names accreditation for occupational therapy education.
OT Compact → Names interstate mobility rules for licensed OTs.
Robotics Resistance
8/8

highly individualized work across people, tasks, tools, caregivers, and environments. Robots and sensors may assist therapy or independence, but they do not replace OT evaluation and adaptation.

Credential Depth
5/5

the graduate occupational therapy pathway: master's or doctoral OT program plus the National Board for Certification in Occupational Therapy (NBCOT) exam plus state licensure.

Sources feeding this sub-component
O*NET Online - Occupational Therapists → Lists Occupational Therapists as Job Zone 5.
BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook - Occupational Therapists → Lists graduate education as the typical entry route.
ACOTE accreditation → Names the accredited education source.
Demand
22/25

Demand is supported by schools, hospitals, rehab, home health, disability services, aging care, and daily-function needs. Growth is strong, and the main qualifiers are reimbursement, school budgets, and productivity pressure in post-acute settings. The work turns disability, injury, illness, and developmental delay into practical daily-function support.

Sub-components
Volume
7/10

Federal projections show 160.0K occupational-therapist jobs in 2024, 13.8% growth, and 10.2K annual openings. Annual openings are about 6.4% of the 2024 workforce.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections → 160.0K jobs in 2024, 182.1K in 2034, 13.8% growth, and 10.2K annual openings.
Source Quality
8/8

The demand source is demand is tied to licensed daily-function care in schools, hospitals, rehab, home health, disability support, and aging-related services.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Resilience
7/7

Demand stays resilient because OT combines licensed plan-setting with patient-specific daily-function work. AI can help with paperwork and home programs, but it does not replace the clinical setup and adaptation work.

Sources feeding this sub-component
What would move the score
Scenario 1
Documentation tools become real caseload relief.

The threshold is documentation or care-plan software that produces real caseload relief without lowering care quality. If tools only add review work or help billing notes, the result would not move; the trigger is usable time back in normal OT jobs.

Direction
Up, modest
Components affected
Demand, Augmentation Leverage
Scenario 2
OT scope narrows in schools or post-acute care.

A narrowing of OT scope in schools, skilled nursing, or home health would cross the threshold if it reduced licensed evaluation and adaptation work. Temporary reimbursement cuts in one setting would matter less than a broad change in who can provide services.

Direction
Down, modest
Components affected
Demand, Regulatory Moat
Scenario 3
Assistive robotics replaces a full care slice.

Assistive robotics would need to replace a full slice of OT-supervised daily-function work across homes, schools, or rehab settings. A helpful device for one transfer, exercise, or reminder would not be enough because matching tool to person remains the hard part.

Direction
Down, meaningful
Components affected
Robotics Resistance, Substitution Resistance
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Last reviewed June 2026 · Next September 2026