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This page explains how the Durability Score is built — the components, the evidence behind each one, and the named sources. For who this work fits and what a career path through it looks like, see the Deep Read. For your personalized match, take the free quiz.
Where the 38 comes from.

Three components - Automation Resistance, Structural Moat, and Demand - add up to 38.

Data note

Federal labor data does not count AI policy specialists separately; the wage, workforce, openings, and AI-exposure numbers use Political Scientists as the public comparison. That gives a policy base, but AI-policy hiring is newer and spread across government, standards, research, and tech-policy teams.

FJP Durability Score
38/100
Automation Resistance
11/40

Automation resistance is limited because policy support work is text-heavy, but final judgment lives in contested institutions. AI can speed summaries, comments, and comparisons, so resistance comes only from institutional judgment that must survive law, politics, and enforcement reality.

Sub-components
Substitution Resistance
6/30

Substitution resistance is modest: AI can draft briefs, summarize hearings, and monitor policy updates, but cannot own institutional judgment.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Anthropic labor-market impacts → Observed exposure for the Political Scientists occupation category is 45.2%.
Tufts American AI Jobs Risk Index → Median modeled job-loss pressure for the occupation category is 40.31%.
Augmentation Leverage
5/10

Augmentation leverage is useful for a small team because research, comparison tables, and first drafts can move faster.

Sources feeding this sub-component
IMF Staff Discussion Notes on AI and labor markets → Links AI-related skills with wage premiums in exposed labor markets.
Structural Moat
16/35

The moat comes from trust, law, public accountability, and technical fluency rather than a mandatory credential. The barrier is trust earned through policy writing, technical fluency, legal awareness, and relationships inside institutions that can actually make rules.

Sub-components
Physical & Environmental
1/10

Physical and environmental protection is almost absent; this is desk-based analytical work.

Regulatory Moat
2/12

Regulatory context matters, but there is no license that reserves AI policy work for a protected profession.

Robotics Resistance
8/8

Robotics do not replace the role because the work is about institutions, law, and persuasion rather than physical execution.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Credential Depth
5/5

Credential depth is moderate: graduate study, law, policy training, or technical AI background can matter, but routes vary widely.

Sources feeding this sub-component
O*NET Online occupation summary → Lists this occupation in Job Zone 5, the highest preparation category.
Demand
11/25

Demand is scored cautiously because public data points to a small political-science row, while AI-specific hiring is real but uneven. The market is small and uneven; hiring depends on regulation, procurement, standards, public scrutiny, and AI programs with money for specialists.

Sub-components
Volume
2/10

Volume is low because the nearest federal row is small and AI policy titles remain concentrated in specialized employers.

Sources feeding this sub-component
Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections → Political Scientists: 6.5K jobs, -3.1% growth, and 0.5K annual openings.
Source Quality
4/8

Source quality is capped because political scientists are only an imperfect public comparison for this title.

Resilience
5/7

Resilience is fair where regulation, procurement, and public scrutiny require human accountability, but funding can shift quickly.

What would move the score
Scenario 1
Memo work gets automated

The case weakens if employers use AI to replace research assistants, bill trackers, and first-draft policy staff while keeping only senior strategists. That would make the entry ladder thinner and shrink the training base for the occupation. If that happens, candidates will need stronger institutional experience before they can reach the strategic layer.

Direction
down
Components affected
Automation Resistance, Demand
Scenario 2
AI rules gain enforcement teeth

The case strengthens if agencies, courts, standards bodies, and large buyers require documented reviews before high-risk AI systems are used. That would create more roles where policy specialists can change decisions instead of only comment on them. Those requirements would also create better training tasks for juniors because evidence files would have real consequences.

Direction
up
Components affected
Demand
Scenario 3
Governance separates from commentary

A mixed outcome needs review if public-facing AI policy commentary grows while inside-institution governance remains small. The key distinction would be whether the role can affect procurement, launch rules, or enforcement strategy. A reader should ask whether the job sits near decision rights or mainly near public messaging.

Direction
neutral
Components affected
Automation Resistance, Demand
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Last reviewed June 2026 · Next September 2026